All posts by: GeorgesUgeux

The U.S Throws the Iranian People in the Hands of the Revolutionary Guard

It is one of the most significant failures of U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. is ignoring the complexity of the Middle East situation and knowingly supporting Sunnites against Shiites. It is a crime against a people that is not responsible for the behavior of its leaders.

It is one of the betrayals of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that Democrats and Republicans renegaded. It is an abuse of the law by the U.S. on its allies who were prohibited from applying their commitment. If the US is back, it must respect its partners. It represents a considerable risk of nuclear conflict now that irresponsible Revolutionary Guards will control. Read More

Masa, Mark, and Elon, the Crypto “Influencers”

It is Time to Tell the Truth

For years, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have accumulated $2 trillion in market cap on a “token” that has absolutely no intrinsic substance. It tells us something about our society that these digital objects (I am not sure we can even call them assets) have been “threatening” the established currencies through what is pure marketing. The money that went into these values might have enriched investors, but contrary to a fiat currency, their economic and social impact has been nonexistent. Read More

Who Will Regulate Central Bank Digital Currencies?

Though a bit provocative, this headline raises a liminal question on the various projects of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDBs): Which  governance will apply to them? Or as Juvenal, the poet in ancient Rome, famously asked, “Who will guard the guards themselves?”[1]

What Is a Central Bank Digital Currency?

A CBDC is the digital form of a country’s fiat currency and, like traditional currency, represents a claim on that country’s government. Instead of printing money, the central bank issues electronic coins backed by the full faith and credit of the government.[2] As a result, for the first time, central banks will accept claims directly from the public. Read More

The US-EU Relationship is Key to Both Sides and World Peace

The US-EU relationship has been damaged during the Donald Trump administration. The Transatlantic alliance can only be rebuilt if it is redefined. Trust has been broken on several US commitments and Europe will no longer accept being treated as obsolete.

The Geopolitical Scene

Whether intentional or not, the geopolitical scene is different since Trump, yet increasingly confrontational.

Russia and China present a united front to the West — but there’s plenty of potential for friction. Read More

Regulating SPACs — Before It’s Too Late

Although it has been used in the past, the resurgence of the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) has been spectacular in the last two years. According to its promoters, a SPAC offers relatively easy access to a listing on a regulated exchange for a private company looking to go public. The sudden proliferation of SPACs has prompted the SEC to investigate how underwriters are managing the risks involved, according to Reuters. [1] The investigation has so far involved letters from the  SEC’s enforcement division asking the underwriters to provide the information voluntarily and, as such, has not yet risen to the level of a formal investigative demand. Read More

Humanizing Brexit is Critical and Urgent

“Can the peoples of Europe rise to the heights of the soul and of the instinct and spirit of man”?

Winston Churchill, September 19, 1946. University of Zurich

Politicians Must Exit the Scene

They have done enough damage and created division. The first three months of the application of the Brexit Trade Agreement have been a repetition of the conflictual narrative of the past four years, where politicians have taken an aggressive course and dominated the Brexit process. Read More

Central Banks Fight the Wrong Inflation by Creating Inflation

The primary mission of central banks has traditionally been to contain inflation. In the words of the Bank of Canada, “At the heart of the Bank’s monetary policy is a commitment to maintaining low and relatively stable inflation — in particular, to keep the rate of inflation close to the 2 percent midpoint of the 1 to 3 percent target range.” However, in the past decade, other motivations besides inflation moved to the center of their decision-making, such as employment and economic growth. The result is central banks around the world purchasing trillions of dollars of domestic sovereign debt. Read More

What is the future of Chinese listings on U.S. exchanges?

This has been a pressing topic in the past weeks when the U.S. government took several actions to intensify its grip over U.S.-listed Chinese companies. Yesterday I discussed this topic as a panelist, together with Harvey L. Pitt, former SEC Chairman; Edward Greene, Partner at Cleary Gottlieb; Lorna Xin Chen, Asia Regional Managing Partner, Head of Greater China at Shearman & Sterling. Columbia Law Professor Benjamin L. Liebman moderated the panel. Read More

CLS Sky Blue Blog: The Backlash Against Chinese-Company Listings on U.S. Exchanges Has a Long History

READ FULL ARTICLE

During that period, listings of foreign companies improved their transparency and governance, thanks to the listing standards of the exchanges and Securities and Exchange Commission, and … Read More

The Brexit Trade Agreement Is a Fair Deal

“The clock stopped ticking. Today is a day of relief,” E.U. negotiator Michel Barnier said at a news conference in Brussels. “But tinted by some sadness, as we compare what came before with what lies ahead.”

First of all, let’s salute the achievement and its authors.

The dramatic breakthrough of the Brexit Trade Agreement is avoiding complete chaos of the export and imports of goods across the North Sea. It resolves the complexity of the Irish situation. It does, at last, gives businesses the opportunity to make the necessary changes within a framework that has been too long to obtain. Read More

Biden I is Not Obama III — An International Legacy

As Joe Biden puts together a team of high quality and experienced people, it might be helpful to look at the task ahead. Many Biden Administration appointees were also in the Obama Administration. This could be misconstrued as “more of the same”, which also harmed Hillary Clinton.

I just came back from a two-week trip to Brussels, London, and Paris. As many are focused on Brexit, I was struck by the fear for Donald Trump, combined with hopes that Joe Biden can turn this ugly page in the history of U.S. international relations. Read More

Reestablish Transatlantic Relationships: the Case for Air Travel With Open Skies

The U.S. intends to exit the Open Skies treaty. It is a 34-nation agreement allowing the U.S., Russia, and other countries to fly their aircraft over each other’s territory — increasing transparency and reducing the chances for perilous miscalculations.

Transatlantic relations are an important factor to world peace, founded on history, values, trade, culture, and personal relationships. As Joe Biden takes the reins of the new administration, he will make a point to assess the damage that his predecessor caused created over the past four years: insults to European leaders, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and other Treaties such as Iran and nuclear dissemination, lining up with the most autocratic regimes, and attacks against the most important peace initiative, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Read More

Biden’s Toughest Challenges: Public Finance, Defense Spending, and Corporate Tax

Sometimes, in a presidential debate, the most important part is what is not addressed. One of them is the fragile state of our public finance, fueled by failed war efforts, favorable taxes for large corporations and wealthy individuals, aberrant defense spending, and absurd investments like the “Mexican Wall”. Read More

The Presidential Debate: a Test of Masculinity

Beyond the electoral challenges of the Presidential Debate, two strikingly different types of men displayed characteristics of anger, but in completely different ways. The contrast was striking; it tells us about men in 2020.

Trump’s manhood

The display of anger by the President of the United States was constantly present: not once did he smile, his adversary’s differences of opinions or criticisms were simply unbearable to him. His first term in office displayed his vision of leadership; he has eliminated any form of opposition in his close circle. Prompt to retaliation and bullying, being exposed to someone questioning his beliefs for ninety minutes was too much for him. The pre-agreed debate rules meant nothing to him, and he fell into his favorite trap: disorderly and impulsive conduct. Read More

Can anyone trust the U.K. under Boris Johnson?

“This is a fantastic moment. We can now move forward as one country — with a government focused upon delivering better public services, greater opportunity and unleashing the potential of every corner of our brilliant United Kingdom while building a strong new relationship with the EU as friends and sovereign equals,”

A quote from U.K. Prime Minister Boris Jonson in January 2020, signing the withdrawal agreement that exited the U.K. as a member of the European Union. Read More

Schools are for education, not politics

At no moment in time has Covid-19 really threatened 0 to 24-year old individuals. However as they can spread the virus, the decision was taken to deprive them of schools, camps, sports, arts, and more importantly, socializing.

As the school year is being prepared, the “lockdown” of these children and young persons continues to be a priority. No, Donald Trump was wrong when he talked about immunity. Yes, young people are on average less is less vulnerable to viruses. No, the pro-private school Secretary of Education, Betsy DeVos, cannot impose the opening of all public schools (that she is trying to crush) without precautions. Read More

Public Trust is a Collateral Casualty of Covid-19

“In God We Trust” is the motto of the United States of America. I never thought of it as a question rather than a statement. It is above the Capitol or the White House, depending on the banknote. It is the supreme reference of our country, but it is also our way to put our faith in our global currency the United States Dollar.

In many conversations recently, the question of trust came up. Almost unanimously, the mistrust in the country’s leadership emerged as a collateral casualty of Covid-19. Not that the virus provoked this mistrust, but the reactions that it triggered demonstrated an underlying lack of confidence in the pillars of our society. Read More

Worst Economy versus Best Stock Market

The quarter with the worst economy since 1929 and the best-performing markets since 1998. The worsening forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the statements by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell should leave no illusion on the depth of the recession.

Wall Street ignores the economy

The contrast could not be more striking between Wall Street and Main Street. The real economy succumbs to bankruptcies and unemployment. The United States will probably see a 20% decline in this quarter and at least an 8% decline for the year 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund. However, Wall Street had its best quarter. Read More

Twelve questions for Joe Biden

Mr. President, Dear Joe,

The challenges of our country are way beyond anything we have seen before. I am interested to know how you intend to tackle the issues that are vital to our future. No, “our best days are not ahead” for the next four years of your Presidency. Don’t take electors for ignorant as Trump did. The next four years will be challenging; an economy in the worst recession since 1929 will continue to divide the country. It is time, to tell the truth. More than anything else, we need you to be honest with us and recognize that you were part of the mistakes and successes of the Obama Administration. Read More

Stop blaming China when the United States are guilty as charged

To say that there has been a peaceful relationship between the United States and China would be fake news. However, the fact that the US are alone in this fight against China should alarm.

It is due to a series of complex factors. The most obvious is a desperate attempt by the campaigning President to designate an outside threat as the reason for his own failures. I had personal experience dealing with the anti-China group in the Republican Party. Read More

Can we avoid a socially explosive recession?

The numbers are staggering: the risks of a depression.

75% of the US households have seen their income decrease. India reached 25% unemployment. A European recession could reach 8%. The new Japanese emergency might reduce the output next month by 20%. China will record its slowest growth in modern history.

They will add to the sharp reduction of economic growth and a massive debt increase that took place since the financial crisis. We are on the verge of the cliff: a possible depression. In an article on the risk of depression, Barron’s writes: During the Great Depression, for example, U.S. economic output shrank 8.5% in 1930, followed by 6.4% and 12.9% decline, respectively, in 1931 and 1932. By 1933, the four-year contraction had left the economy only half the size it was in 1929. Read More

It’s the debt stupid, not the virus

The Coronavirus Economy: when Washington Takes Over Business. The $2 trillion aid package is expected to save jobs and bail out companies, but it reorders the relationship between government and the private sector, states theNew York Times. It is a nationalization in disguise by a penniless government that will need to be financed by its Federal Reserve. Read More

Medium: Are Islamic countries abandoning the Muslims?

This direct question is motivated by the recent evolution of violence against Muslims in several parts of the world. It raises the question of the responsibility the leaders of Islamic countries are taking by not opposing this violence. Read More